Food crisis ravages Namibia
Thousands hungry
The number of Namibians who are expected to suffer food insecurity at crisis levels in the current quarter is estimated at nearly 1.4 million.
According to the latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, this is 19% more than the past three months.
An estimated 85 000 people (or 3% of the analysed population) will experience food insecurity at emergency levels, while 842 000 (or 28% of the analysed population) are anticipated to be exposed to stressed food security.
“The situation is expected to worsen due to the ongoing drought situation,” the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis states.
Hunger
Almost three-quarters of Namibians went without enough food to eat at least once during the previous year, according to the survey results of Afrobarometer released last week.
The survey shows the proportion of Namibians who say they went without enough food during the previous year has risen from 47% in 2017 to 73% in 2024.
The proportion of citizens who suffer frequent deprivations of food has risen steadily, to the highest levels recorded since 2017, Afrobarometer states.
Food shortage ranks in the top three most important problems that Namibians want their government to urgently address.
Overall, nearly two-thirds of Namibians repeatedly went without basic life necessities last year, placing them in the category of moderate or high lived poverty.
Crisis
Seventy percent of the population in Kavango West are expected to suffer food insecurity at crisis levels until the end of September this year, the IPC report warned.
In both Kavango East and Omaheke, the projected figure is 65% of the population.
All regions are expected to be classified in Phase 3 of the IPC’s categories, which means they are in crisis.
Seven out of 14 regions are estimated to have populations in Phase 4 or “emergency”, including Kavango West, Hardap, Kavango East and Omaheke (10% each), as well as Kunene, Ohangwena and Zambezi (5% each).
El Niño
Factors expected to impact food security during the projected period include the negative effects of the El Niño phenomenon on crop-producing regions, as well as limited availability of livestock pasture and water, according to the IPC report.
Other factors include unfavourable economic and market conditions, restricted agricultural labour opportunities and wages, reduced informal cross-border flows, increased migration across borders, and an adverse health and nutrition environment.
Crops
According to the Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation Assessment Report released in March by the agriculture ministry, a significant 53% reduction in crop production is anticipated compared to the output in 2023.
Preliminary crop estimates suggest that many communal crop-producing regions are expected to yield below-average harvests due to erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged severe dry spells experienced from early January through much of February and March 2024.
These conditions led to crop stress and widespread wilting during critical growth stages such as germination, flowering and grain formation.
Green Scheme
Despite these challenges, the Green Scheme Projects are forecasted to produce 13 100 metric tonnes (MT) of maize this season, marking a 24% increase from last season's production of 10 600 MT.
Additionally, wheat production in the Green Scheme Projects is expected to reach 3 100 MT, which represents a substantial 63% rise from the 1 900 MT produced last season.
The increase in production in the green scheme projects is attributed to expanded planting areas, according to the IPC report.
Livestock
Many parts of Namibia are experiencing challenging grazing conditions, primarily due to inadequate rainfall and prolonged dry spells during the latter half of the 2023/2024 rainy season.
While livestock recovery efforts are progressing as planned, per capita livestock holdings have not yet fully rebounded due to recurring droughts, the report states.
To support livestock holders, the government has initiated a restocking programme subsidised to bolster the livestock sector's recovery.
The Southern Africa region is facing increased demand for fodder because of poor rainfall, leading to shortages and higher costs of hay and fodder.
Market dynamics are influenced by limited suppliers of raw materials for livestock feed production, potentially leading to monopolistic pricing, the IPC report warns.
These conditions are expected to negatively impact livestock health, with many animals currently suffering from starvation, which could increase mortality rates. Furthermore, dry conditions may exacerbate pasture availability issues, especially if fires occur in grazing areas.
Overselling
Due to poor livestock conditions, there's a risk of forced overselling, which could compromise household incomes from livestock sales, the IPC report cautions.
Challenges in destocking are attributed to lengthy application and registration procedures, exacerbated by insufficient information and awareness about requirements.
Digitalising and streamlining the application and registration processes could improve efficiency and facilitate destocking. Reviewing the entire application structure is necessary to achieve this goal, the report recommends.
Water
According to the latest dam bulletin by NamWater, the total capacity of Namibia's dams last week was 53.5%, down from 66.2% during the same period last year.
Most dams currently have low water levels, with only Neckartal and Friedenau dams surpassing 50% capacity, standing at 81.4% and 52.7% percent of full capacity, respectively.
Water availability is scarce, exacerbated by dry catchments leading to poor water quality, the report states.
Damage to boreholes and theft of pumps in northern communal areas are expected to worsen the situation, possibly indicating deeper underlying issues.
“It is expected that water availability, in general, will have a 40-60% decrease in water tables. This is likely to increase the price of water for consumers in urban and peri-urban areas,” the IPC report states.
“There is a likelihood of conflicts on water usage for livestock in communal areas due to management of the funds collected from the usage of the pumps,” it adds.
Markets
Prices for major staples like maize and millet are anticipated to rise, driven by low purchasing power, according to the report.
According to the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI), food and beverages are among the top three contributors to inflation.
Inflation is exacerbated by regional shortages, particularly in supplies from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine-Russia and the recent Gaza war are impacting transport routes for fuel and international commodities. This is expected to increase fuel costs and subsequently raise transport expenses, leading to higher costs for food and services overall, the report states.
“Despite zero tax on foodstuffs such as cooking oil, wheat flour, beans and sugar, households still cannot afford them. Availability of food on the shelves is likely to be affected negatively,” it says.
Labour
The agriculture sector employs 22% of the workforce in Namibia.
With a decline in production, there will be a further reduction in opportunities along the value chain, according to the IPC report.
“At the farm level, labour opportunities will be seriously affected. The net effect will be urban migration, putting more pressure on the scarce services available, such as water and food,” it states.
Cross-border inflows
Cross-border movements between Zambia and Zimbabwe are a regular occurrence, facilitating the trade of goods aimed at small markets along the borders.
However, the current situation in both countries is expected to reduce trade volumes and incomes, the IPC report says.
Zambia and Zimbabwe traditionally supply significant amounts of grain to Namibia, but both nations have declared a state of disaster due to a failed agricultural season.
This unprecedented situation will impact programmes like school feeding, which typically rely on Zambia's production, it warns.
The interruption of informal trader routes for commodities is also anticipated as a consequence of these developments, the report adds.
Migration
The influx of populations from neighbouring countries will strain facilities and services, particularly water pumps, which are essential for meeting increased demand, the IPC report states.
In-migration also brings hazards such as potential livestock diseases due to cattle movements.
Furthermore, the arrival of people in marginal areas will impact population densities in limited spaces.
This situation can lead to a higher dependency ratio, reducing opportunities for improved livelihoods, according to the IPC report.
Nutrition
Reported crop failures have severely impacted food security, leading to negative effects on food diversification both in markets and at the household level.
This situation is expected to result in macro nutrition deficiencies, particularly among children, the report states.
Consequently, immune deficiencies are anticipated to increase among vulnerable groups such as children under five and the elderly, impairing their ability to absorb essential nutrients and exacerbating the malnutrition situation.
“In-patient admissions, outpatient visits and relapse numbers are expected to increase,” the report says.
“Social tension at household levels, particularly between spouses, is one of the social ills likely to manifest when food availability is negatively impacted,” it adds.
According to the latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, this is 19% more than the past three months.
An estimated 85 000 people (or 3% of the analysed population) will experience food insecurity at emergency levels, while 842 000 (or 28% of the analysed population) are anticipated to be exposed to stressed food security.
“The situation is expected to worsen due to the ongoing drought situation,” the IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis states.
Hunger
Almost three-quarters of Namibians went without enough food to eat at least once during the previous year, according to the survey results of Afrobarometer released last week.
The survey shows the proportion of Namibians who say they went without enough food during the previous year has risen from 47% in 2017 to 73% in 2024.
The proportion of citizens who suffer frequent deprivations of food has risen steadily, to the highest levels recorded since 2017, Afrobarometer states.
Food shortage ranks in the top three most important problems that Namibians want their government to urgently address.
Overall, nearly two-thirds of Namibians repeatedly went without basic life necessities last year, placing them in the category of moderate or high lived poverty.
Crisis
Seventy percent of the population in Kavango West are expected to suffer food insecurity at crisis levels until the end of September this year, the IPC report warned.
In both Kavango East and Omaheke, the projected figure is 65% of the population.
All regions are expected to be classified in Phase 3 of the IPC’s categories, which means they are in crisis.
Seven out of 14 regions are estimated to have populations in Phase 4 or “emergency”, including Kavango West, Hardap, Kavango East and Omaheke (10% each), as well as Kunene, Ohangwena and Zambezi (5% each).
El Niño
Factors expected to impact food security during the projected period include the negative effects of the El Niño phenomenon on crop-producing regions, as well as limited availability of livestock pasture and water, according to the IPC report.
Other factors include unfavourable economic and market conditions, restricted agricultural labour opportunities and wages, reduced informal cross-border flows, increased migration across borders, and an adverse health and nutrition environment.
Crops
According to the Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation Assessment Report released in March by the agriculture ministry, a significant 53% reduction in crop production is anticipated compared to the output in 2023.
Preliminary crop estimates suggest that many communal crop-producing regions are expected to yield below-average harvests due to erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged severe dry spells experienced from early January through much of February and March 2024.
These conditions led to crop stress and widespread wilting during critical growth stages such as germination, flowering and grain formation.
Green Scheme
Despite these challenges, the Green Scheme Projects are forecasted to produce 13 100 metric tonnes (MT) of maize this season, marking a 24% increase from last season's production of 10 600 MT.
Additionally, wheat production in the Green Scheme Projects is expected to reach 3 100 MT, which represents a substantial 63% rise from the 1 900 MT produced last season.
The increase in production in the green scheme projects is attributed to expanded planting areas, according to the IPC report.
Livestock
Many parts of Namibia are experiencing challenging grazing conditions, primarily due to inadequate rainfall and prolonged dry spells during the latter half of the 2023/2024 rainy season.
While livestock recovery efforts are progressing as planned, per capita livestock holdings have not yet fully rebounded due to recurring droughts, the report states.
To support livestock holders, the government has initiated a restocking programme subsidised to bolster the livestock sector's recovery.
The Southern Africa region is facing increased demand for fodder because of poor rainfall, leading to shortages and higher costs of hay and fodder.
Market dynamics are influenced by limited suppliers of raw materials for livestock feed production, potentially leading to monopolistic pricing, the IPC report warns.
These conditions are expected to negatively impact livestock health, with many animals currently suffering from starvation, which could increase mortality rates. Furthermore, dry conditions may exacerbate pasture availability issues, especially if fires occur in grazing areas.
Overselling
Due to poor livestock conditions, there's a risk of forced overselling, which could compromise household incomes from livestock sales, the IPC report cautions.
Challenges in destocking are attributed to lengthy application and registration procedures, exacerbated by insufficient information and awareness about requirements.
Digitalising and streamlining the application and registration processes could improve efficiency and facilitate destocking. Reviewing the entire application structure is necessary to achieve this goal, the report recommends.
Water
According to the latest dam bulletin by NamWater, the total capacity of Namibia's dams last week was 53.5%, down from 66.2% during the same period last year.
Most dams currently have low water levels, with only Neckartal and Friedenau dams surpassing 50% capacity, standing at 81.4% and 52.7% percent of full capacity, respectively.
Water availability is scarce, exacerbated by dry catchments leading to poor water quality, the report states.
Damage to boreholes and theft of pumps in northern communal areas are expected to worsen the situation, possibly indicating deeper underlying issues.
“It is expected that water availability, in general, will have a 40-60% decrease in water tables. This is likely to increase the price of water for consumers in urban and peri-urban areas,” the IPC report states.
“There is a likelihood of conflicts on water usage for livestock in communal areas due to management of the funds collected from the usage of the pumps,” it adds.
Markets
Prices for major staples like maize and millet are anticipated to rise, driven by low purchasing power, according to the report.
According to the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI), food and beverages are among the top three contributors to inflation.
Inflation is exacerbated by regional shortages, particularly in supplies from South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Additionally, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine-Russia and the recent Gaza war are impacting transport routes for fuel and international commodities. This is expected to increase fuel costs and subsequently raise transport expenses, leading to higher costs for food and services overall, the report states.
“Despite zero tax on foodstuffs such as cooking oil, wheat flour, beans and sugar, households still cannot afford them. Availability of food on the shelves is likely to be affected negatively,” it says.
Labour
The agriculture sector employs 22% of the workforce in Namibia.
With a decline in production, there will be a further reduction in opportunities along the value chain, according to the IPC report.
“At the farm level, labour opportunities will be seriously affected. The net effect will be urban migration, putting more pressure on the scarce services available, such as water and food,” it states.
Cross-border inflows
Cross-border movements between Zambia and Zimbabwe are a regular occurrence, facilitating the trade of goods aimed at small markets along the borders.
However, the current situation in both countries is expected to reduce trade volumes and incomes, the IPC report says.
Zambia and Zimbabwe traditionally supply significant amounts of grain to Namibia, but both nations have declared a state of disaster due to a failed agricultural season.
This unprecedented situation will impact programmes like school feeding, which typically rely on Zambia's production, it warns.
The interruption of informal trader routes for commodities is also anticipated as a consequence of these developments, the report adds.
Migration
The influx of populations from neighbouring countries will strain facilities and services, particularly water pumps, which are essential for meeting increased demand, the IPC report states.
In-migration also brings hazards such as potential livestock diseases due to cattle movements.
Furthermore, the arrival of people in marginal areas will impact population densities in limited spaces.
This situation can lead to a higher dependency ratio, reducing opportunities for improved livelihoods, according to the IPC report.
Nutrition
Reported crop failures have severely impacted food security, leading to negative effects on food diversification both in markets and at the household level.
This situation is expected to result in macro nutrition deficiencies, particularly among children, the report states.
Consequently, immune deficiencies are anticipated to increase among vulnerable groups such as children under five and the elderly, impairing their ability to absorb essential nutrients and exacerbating the malnutrition situation.
“In-patient admissions, outpatient visits and relapse numbers are expected to increase,” the report says.
“Social tension at household levels, particularly between spouses, is one of the social ills likely to manifest when food availability is negatively impacted,” it adds.
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