Swapo might face historic defeat
Game-changing elections
The upcoming elections could be the biggest test for Namibia's constitutional democracy and rule of law since independence, says veteran Namibian political commentator Henning Melber, extraordinary professor at the department of political sciences at the University of Pretoria in South Africa.
The former liberation movement South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo) has been in firm political control of Namibia since independence in 1990.
Support for the party in the national assembly and presidential elections reached a high point in November 2014.
The 2019 elections marked a turning point, however: Swapo lost its two-thirds-majority in parliament. President Hage Geingob was re-elected with the worst result yet – 56% – from 87% in 2014. This reflected disappointment over the unfulfilled promises he had made.
Shifting votes
Votes shifted to his Swapo comrade Panduleni Itula.
After being expelled from the party in 2020, Itula founded the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC).
Itula, contesting as an “independent candidate” without party nomination, managed to snatch 30% of the votes from Geingob.
Swapo’s downward trend was confirmed by a dramatic decline in support in the 2020 regional and local elections.
Despite these shifting grounds, democracy stood the test of time.
The smooth transition following the death of Geingob in February 2024 was a sign of political stability. Previous vice-president Nangolo Mbumba became interim president.
But Swapo faces a new quality of opposition.
I have followed and analysed policy in Namibia since independence.
In my view, the national assembly and presidential elections of 27 November 2024 signify a new political scenario. For the first time a clear victory for Swapo seems less certain.
Swapo
The Swapo election manifesto pays tribute to Geingob.
But it doesn’t mention his Harambee Prosperity Plan. Nor does it feature his metaphor of the “Namibian house”, in which nobody is left behind.
This signifies an abrupt closing of a chapter.
Mbumba declared himself a caretaker, not interested in the position for a long term. He therefore does not feature prominently in the election manifesto.
As decided by the party congress in December 2023 the Swapo presidential candidate is Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, also known as “NNN”.
Born in 1952, she was a Swapo Youth League activist from her school days and joined Swapo in exile in the mid-1970s. As a liberation struggle veteran she became part of the party leadership and has been a cabinet member since independence.
Strong competition
Nandi-Ndaitwah would be the first female Namibian head of state if elected.
But she faces strong competition from Itula.
Namibia’s president is directly elected by a 50% 1 vote from the electorate.
There are several presidential candidates nominated by parties with notable followings. This raises the possibility of no candidate achieving an absolute majority in the first round, for the first time.
There would then be a second-round presidential election between the two candidates with the most votes.
While not yet in parliament, Itula’s party, Independent Patriots for Change, made inroads in the 2020 regional and local government elections.
In 2019, the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) won 16 out of the 96 parliamentary seats, becoming the official opposition.
The newcomer Landless People’s Movement (LPM) won four seats, making it the third strongest party.
Despite all these recent gradual shifts, hopes for visible transformation were largely unfulfilled. Namibian politics remained business as usual.
As Rui Tyitende, a political scientist at the University of Namibia, recently wrote: “Namibia’s opposition parties are marred by political promiscuity, factionalism, internal conflicts and a perennial struggle for power ... Even though Swapo is dysfunctional, the opposition needs to earn the right to govern.”
The manifestos
This year’s election campaigns started much earlier than usual, testifying to new dynamics.
While often lacking substance beyond personalised insults, electioneering remained peaceful. Notably, since independence, Namibia has not recorded a single politically motivated killing.
Despite early campaigning, party manifestos were released only from mid-September. These kept the media watching out for often dubious promises.
Swapo wants to allocate about N$85.7 billion (U$4.9 billion) over five years for mass employment. It does not explain where the funds will come from. But it projects this will create 256 538 jobs.
The other parties’ manifestos make similarly unrealistic promises.
The IPC and the PDM promise drastic reduction of poverty, unemployment and informal settlements.
The LPM claims to be Marxist, but includes a commitment to promoting a free market economy, and investment by multinationals. It also wants to send the first Namibian satellite into space.
Impact
Arguably, election manifestos have no serious impact on voting behaviour.
For example, among the older generation, political party loyalties remain influenced to some extent by the liberation struggle history, and regional and ethnic identities.
In contrast, Namibians who were born after independence make up more than half of the country’s three million people, with an average age of 21 years. Many of the younger electorate live in urban areas, and have become an increasingly decisive factor.
For them, the anti-colonial struggle and ethnicity provide little influence.
This might be a factor in voting behaviour.
Rallies
It seems that Swapo continues to attract the biggest crowds at rallies.
However, it remains a matter of speculation if this signals huge electoral support, or is due to the entertainment by popular artists. Entertainment has always played a role in Namibian elections.
Free T-shirts, food and drinks are also incentives for people attending rallies, many of whom are not yet of voting age.
While facing financial constraints, Swapo still has the most funds and donors.
Another advantage is that it has a functioning operational structure throughout the country, with a regional and local presence of activists.
Something new or more of the same?
Swapo has comparative advantages but there is growing frustration among voters.
Its dominance since independence has resulted in a form of democratic authoritarianism or authoritarian democracy.
But voter support has still declined.
Similarly authoritarian leadership in the opposition parties and factional in-fighting provide no hope of alternative policies or political culture. Their political coalitions ended in disarray. This might come to Swapo’s rescue.
An unlikely but possible scenario would be an elected president coming from outside Swapo, while Swapo dominates the national assembly.
The head of state has far-reaching executive powers. But he or she would then have to work with ministers and deputy ministers drawn from a parliament dominated by Swapo.
Governance
Such a constellation would complicate governance.
It risks making a non-Swapo president a lame duck. It would be the biggest test for Namibia’s constitutional democracy and rule of law since independence.
As South Africa’s case shows, a former liberation movement can still have a future despite losing its outright majority.
Swapo could get beyond the nostalgic liberation struggle mindset and reinvent itself as a modern political party.
This could – as happened in South Africa – pave the way to enter coalition politics in the best interest of the people. - The Conversation
#NamibiaDecides2024
Support for the party in the national assembly and presidential elections reached a high point in November 2014.
The 2019 elections marked a turning point, however: Swapo lost its two-thirds-majority in parliament. President Hage Geingob was re-elected with the worst result yet – 56% – from 87% in 2014. This reflected disappointment over the unfulfilled promises he had made.
Shifting votes
Votes shifted to his Swapo comrade Panduleni Itula.
After being expelled from the party in 2020, Itula founded the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC).
Itula, contesting as an “independent candidate” without party nomination, managed to snatch 30% of the votes from Geingob.
Swapo’s downward trend was confirmed by a dramatic decline in support in the 2020 regional and local elections.
Despite these shifting grounds, democracy stood the test of time.
The smooth transition following the death of Geingob in February 2024 was a sign of political stability. Previous vice-president Nangolo Mbumba became interim president.
But Swapo faces a new quality of opposition.
I have followed and analysed policy in Namibia since independence.
In my view, the national assembly and presidential elections of 27 November 2024 signify a new political scenario. For the first time a clear victory for Swapo seems less certain.
Swapo
The Swapo election manifesto pays tribute to Geingob.
But it doesn’t mention his Harambee Prosperity Plan. Nor does it feature his metaphor of the “Namibian house”, in which nobody is left behind.
This signifies an abrupt closing of a chapter.
Mbumba declared himself a caretaker, not interested in the position for a long term. He therefore does not feature prominently in the election manifesto.
As decided by the party congress in December 2023 the Swapo presidential candidate is Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, also known as “NNN”.
Born in 1952, she was a Swapo Youth League activist from her school days and joined Swapo in exile in the mid-1970s. As a liberation struggle veteran she became part of the party leadership and has been a cabinet member since independence.
Strong competition
Nandi-Ndaitwah would be the first female Namibian head of state if elected.
But she faces strong competition from Itula.
Namibia’s president is directly elected by a 50% 1 vote from the electorate.
There are several presidential candidates nominated by parties with notable followings. This raises the possibility of no candidate achieving an absolute majority in the first round, for the first time.
There would then be a second-round presidential election between the two candidates with the most votes.
While not yet in parliament, Itula’s party, Independent Patriots for Change, made inroads in the 2020 regional and local government elections.
In 2019, the Popular Democratic Movement (PDM) won 16 out of the 96 parliamentary seats, becoming the official opposition.
The newcomer Landless People’s Movement (LPM) won four seats, making it the third strongest party.
Despite all these recent gradual shifts, hopes for visible transformation were largely unfulfilled. Namibian politics remained business as usual.
As Rui Tyitende, a political scientist at the University of Namibia, recently wrote: “Namibia’s opposition parties are marred by political promiscuity, factionalism, internal conflicts and a perennial struggle for power ... Even though Swapo is dysfunctional, the opposition needs to earn the right to govern.”
The manifestos
This year’s election campaigns started much earlier than usual, testifying to new dynamics.
While often lacking substance beyond personalised insults, electioneering remained peaceful. Notably, since independence, Namibia has not recorded a single politically motivated killing.
Despite early campaigning, party manifestos were released only from mid-September. These kept the media watching out for often dubious promises.
Swapo wants to allocate about N$85.7 billion (U$4.9 billion) over five years for mass employment. It does not explain where the funds will come from. But it projects this will create 256 538 jobs.
The other parties’ manifestos make similarly unrealistic promises.
The IPC and the PDM promise drastic reduction of poverty, unemployment and informal settlements.
The LPM claims to be Marxist, but includes a commitment to promoting a free market economy, and investment by multinationals. It also wants to send the first Namibian satellite into space.
Impact
Arguably, election manifestos have no serious impact on voting behaviour.
For example, among the older generation, political party loyalties remain influenced to some extent by the liberation struggle history, and regional and ethnic identities.
In contrast, Namibians who were born after independence make up more than half of the country’s three million people, with an average age of 21 years. Many of the younger electorate live in urban areas, and have become an increasingly decisive factor.
For them, the anti-colonial struggle and ethnicity provide little influence.
This might be a factor in voting behaviour.
Rallies
It seems that Swapo continues to attract the biggest crowds at rallies.
However, it remains a matter of speculation if this signals huge electoral support, or is due to the entertainment by popular artists. Entertainment has always played a role in Namibian elections.
Free T-shirts, food and drinks are also incentives for people attending rallies, many of whom are not yet of voting age.
While facing financial constraints, Swapo still has the most funds and donors.
Another advantage is that it has a functioning operational structure throughout the country, with a regional and local presence of activists.
Something new or more of the same?
Swapo has comparative advantages but there is growing frustration among voters.
Its dominance since independence has resulted in a form of democratic authoritarianism or authoritarian democracy.
But voter support has still declined.
Similarly authoritarian leadership in the opposition parties and factional in-fighting provide no hope of alternative policies or political culture. Their political coalitions ended in disarray. This might come to Swapo’s rescue.
An unlikely but possible scenario would be an elected president coming from outside Swapo, while Swapo dominates the national assembly.
The head of state has far-reaching executive powers. But he or she would then have to work with ministers and deputy ministers drawn from a parliament dominated by Swapo.
Governance
Such a constellation would complicate governance.
It risks making a non-Swapo president a lame duck. It would be the biggest test for Namibia’s constitutional democracy and rule of law since independence.
As South Africa’s case shows, a former liberation movement can still have a future despite losing its outright majority.
Swapo could get beyond the nostalgic liberation struggle mindset and reinvent itself as a modern political party.
This could – as happened in South Africa – pave the way to enter coalition politics in the best interest of the people. - The Conversation
#NamibiaDecides2024
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