EU risking security in Mozambique

The European Union could be gambling with security in Mozambique's conflict-plagued Cabo Delgado to find a regular source for its demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) this winter, an analyst has warned.

This comes after Russia cut supplies indefinitely as war with Ukraine rages on. In September, the EU renewed its commitment to Kagame's Rwanda Defence Forces to stay on in Cabo Delgado through a R270 million fund.

Since the discovery of oil and gas, at least 4 000 people have been killed and close to a million displaced in the northern part of Mozambique by Islamic extremist-linked insurgents. The insurgency is placing gas projects meant to reduce the EU's reliance on Russian energy in jeopardy.

The conflict is closely linked to the exploration of resources, and French firm TotalEnergies SE and American giant ExxonMobil Corp have had to delay their operations - this while the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and Rwanda separately sent troops to the area.

But it is Rwanda, Europe's darling in east Africa that has been more actively involved in Mozambique.

Before speeding up an arrangement initially agreed upon in 2016 by British Petroleum (BP) and the government a year prior to the conflict, Rwandan president Paul Kagame paid a state visit to Maputo a fortnight ago to discuss, among other issues, how his army would protect the oil-gas-rich parts of Cabo Delgado from insurgents as operations resumed.

Sources told News24 that in the next few weeks, Rwanda will step up its efforts in the northern parts of Cabo Delgado to protect the coastal areas as well as the mainland where there are ruby deposits.

Crisis

Borges Nhamirre, a researcher with the Institute of Security Studies (ISS), told News24 that the security situation in Cabo Delgado was still delicate, but to alleviate an energy crisis, Europe was ignoring that.

"It's still dangerous. Communities are being raided and people are not at peace, but Europe has decided to look in the other direction just for access to LNG," he said.

Recent reports in Mozambique indicate that on Monday morning, Islamic extremists arrived in Muambula, shooting at a high school and the marketplace randomly. There were casualties confirmed.

But for President Filipe Nyusi, the LNG export was "historic" and presented the country with a chance to improve one of the world's poorest nations' economic prospects.

BP, which loaded the cargo, has a long-term agreement to purchase 100% of LNG output from the facility that has the capacity to produce up to 3.4 million tonnes of LNG per year, the company said in a statement on Tuesday. That's about a third of the UK's LNG exports last year.

Production

"The start of production from the Coral Sul FLNG facility represents a major milestone for Mozambique, the project partners, and BP as the LNG buyer.

"As the world seeks secure, affordable, and lower-carbon energy, global demand for LNG is expected to continue to grow. This new supply source further enhances BP’s capability to deliver LNG to markets across the world and we look forward to continuing our close collaboration with all those involved in the project," she said.

Policy Centre for the New South (PCNS), a think tank, argues that "bringing social benefits to the local population is essential" in Cabo Delgado because that speaks directly to Mozambique and, by extension, its international partners.

"This highlights that good governance, social justice, and security are paramount for optimising the potential of natural gas - and other natural resources - for economic development," reads a review by the think tank.

The other LNG sources for Europe in Africa are Egypt, Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria, but they have no capacity to replace Russia as the major source of LNG because of infrastructural disadvantages and their own increasing domestic needs.-Fin24

-Fin24