Namibia: The Next in Line

Namibia might not export as much directly to the United States, but it cannot afford to be complacent. The announcement that Namibian exports will now face a 21% tariff in the U.S. is sobering particularly for an economy that depends heavily on mining, fish, and agricultural exports.Namibia’s non-monetary gold, uranium, and fish products have made their way into global markets thanks to stable demand and competitive quality. But with this new tariff in place, those goods become 21% more expensive for U.S. buyers who can now easily turn to alternative suppliers. Namibia could see a drop in export volumes or profits, neither of which it can afford in a fragile post-COVID recovery.But the deeper risk lies in Namibia’s economic relationship with South Africa. Over 60% of Namibia’s imports from groceries to fuel and cement come from its southern neighbour. Through the SACU revenue-sharing agreement, Namibia relies heavily on customs and excise collections from South Africa to fund its own budget. If South African trade slows down due to Trump’s tariffs, those SACU revenues will fall, and Namibia’s fiscal space will tighten.That could mean less funding for schools, hospitals, roads, or youth employment programs. Already constrained by rising debt and limited access to cheap financing, Namibia will have to make hard choices if revenues contract further, and it’s not just government that will feel the pinch. If the rand weakens, so does the Namibia dollar, due to the currency peg. That means more expensive imports, especially food and fuel. For the average Namibian household, this could show up as higher prices at the pump, pricier electricity, and stretched grocery bills all while wages remain flat.What Trump’s tariffs expose again is just how deeply interlinked Southern Africa is with the global economy, and how vulnerable it is to decisions made thousands of kilometres away. It also shows how Namibia and South Africa’s economic fates are bound together, through trade, infrastructure, investment flows, and fiscal arrangements. But these challenges also reveal where the region needs to focus: Diversify Trade: Both countries must deepen their ties with the rest of Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia reducing over-reliance on the U.S. and EU. Boost Domestic Value-Addition: Exporting raw minerals and importing refined goods creates exposure. More beneficiation and local manufacturing can build economic resilience. Strengthen Regional Infrastructure: Namibia’s ports, corridors, and railways must be enhanced to reduce logistical dependence on South Africa and attract new trade routes. Safeguard Social Stability: Inflation and job losses hit the poorest hardest. Targeted social support and employment programs must be prioritized to absorb shocks.Trump’s new tariff regime is not just about trade it’s about uncertainty, volatility, and the ripple effects of economic nationalism. For Southern Africa, it is a reminder that external shocks don’t stop at borders. What starts as a policy decision in Washington can end up shrinking a paycheck in Windhoek or closing a factory gate in Port Elizabeth. Now is the time for foresight, cooperation, and bold decision-making. For Namibia, that means shielding its economy from global storms while building long-term engines of inclusive growth. Because when South Africa sneezes, Namibia truly does catch the cold — and this time, the winter could be longer than expected. *Almandro Jansen is the economist at Simonis Storm.**

Namibia: The Next in Line

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Republikein 2025-04-14

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Namibia: The Next in Line

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