SA farmers brace for return of El Niño

Carin Smith - After a few years of more favourable so-called La Niña weather conditions, South Africa's agricultural sector is bracing for a shift to the usually hotter and drier El Niño, which could put food security in the country at risk.

Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the agriculture business chamber Agbiz, says under a possible drought season, a large share of the country's agriculture would be strained.

Roughly 20% of maize, 15% of soybean, 34% of sugarcane, and nearly half of the wheat production are produced under irrigation. The rest is rain-fed. In fruits and vegetables, a sizeable area relies on irrigation. Irrigation also plays an important role in the livestock sector.

"A possible drought would present major risks to food security," says Sihlobo. "Even more worrying is that the agricultural regions that irrigate face continuous interruptions because of load-shedding."

In March, the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University indicated that La Niña is winding down and El Niño is to follow later this year. El Niño is associated with increased temperatures and low rainfall. In South Africa, the so-called "day-zero" drought in Cape Town a few years ago was due to El Niño conditions.

According to the IRI, the probability of El Niño is still low or neutral for April to June, at around 21%. But this increases to 49% for May to July. The probability increases significantly to between 60% and 67% from June to August.

Impact

Agricultural economist John Hudson of Nedbank says El Niño conditions impact all crops and natural grazing. This applies to rain-fed and irrigated production.

At times the impact of El Niño can be severe. For example, the 2014 to 2016 period was one of the toughest on record, with grazing and crop production, both rain-fed and irrigated, coming under extreme pressure.

"Learnings from this period included adopting precision agriculture and essentially doing more with less. This, along with climate-smart agriculture and a focus on improving soil health and boosting soil carbon levels, is valuable in a drought year," says Hudson.

Sihlobo explains that South Africa has had a good four seasons of La Niña-induced heavy rains from 2019/20 to 2022/23. These above-normal rains supported agriculture leading to higher yields across various field crops, fruits and vegetables. The livestock industry also benefitted from improved grazing pasture.

However, he warns that a return of El Niño conditions could resemble the bleak agricultural conditions during the last El Niño drought in the 2015/16 season.

Bleak conditions

Staple crops such as maize dropped to 8.2 million tonnes, well below SA's consumption levels of 11.8 million. This shortfall necessitated imports of maize to supplement domestic needs. Other field crops, fruits, vegetables, and livestock also experienced severe losses.

"A drought can be particularly challenging for livestock farmers given that we only recently came out of a drought period which some parts of the country are still experiencing," says Dewald Olivier of the SA Feedlot Association.

With lower rainfall levels, the quality and quantity of grazing land can be reduced, which can make it difficult for farmers to provide adequate feed for their livestock. In turn, it could lead to weight loss, poor health, and reduced productivity among livestock.

If the availability of grazing land is reduced, livestock farmers may need to purchase additional feed to supplement their animals' diets. This can be expensive and add to the overall cost of production.

Furthermore, drier and warmer conditions can create a more favourable environment for certain diseases to spread, which can affect the health of livestock.

Water

Hudson says following good rains in much of SA's summer rainfall areas during the past four seasons has resulted in high dam levels - aside from parts of the Eastern Cape.

"This, along with good soil moisture and a high water table, stands us in good stead going into a dry period. If the drought becomes extended as it did from 2014 to 2016, the impact increases accordingly, and the recovery takes longer.

Prof Wiehann Steyn, general manager of Hortgro Science, says various lessons were learnt from the previous drought and long-term climate change predictions.

"We have to plan for a future where water will be less readily available, droughts will increase in frequency, and water quality will deteriorate - due to infrastructure failings, salinisation in some areas, and human pollution. We have to become more efficient in using water," says Steyn.

He says the levels of the big irrigation dams and those shared between Cape Town, major towns, and agriculture are below the levels of 2022 but above the levels preceding the recent drought.

"We received substantial rainfall during March, which prevented the levels of big dams from decreasing according to prediction. Private irrigation dams on farms in most regions are also much healthier due to the high rainfall in March," says Steyn.

Response

Dr. Stephanie Midgley, a scientist at the Western Cape Department of Agriculture, says many in the agricultural sector believe the delayed official response to reduce the risks and impacts of the 2015-2017 El Niño drought was problematic.

"By the time assistance was provided, losses were already so large that many producers could not cope and lost their livelihoods. The private sector and civil society stepped up to mitigate some of these effects through relief," she says.

"Bureaucratic barriers to responding quickly and flexibly are some of the main reasons for delayed action. South Africa does experience such droughts on occasion and has learnt from both successes and failures in responding to previous events. However, this good understanding did not translate to effective measures in the earlier phases of the 2015-2017 drought." – Fin24