SA needs a better summer, and it may be on the cards

While some regions of South Africa have already received the early 2024/25 summer rains, others haven't received much.

Farmers are understandably worried about the prospects for the new season in some areas of the country that are still somewhat dry and with warmer temperatures. However, I believe, supported by various forecasts from the Columbia Climate School at Columbia University and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, that the prospects of a La Niña occurrence remain pretty high this season.

On 15 October, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology noted: "The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook is currently at La Niña watch, meaning there remain some signs that a La Niña may form later in 2024".

Meanwhile, the Columbia Climate School sees the probability of La Niña occurrence at over 60% between October and January 2025. From February, the prospects slow to below 50%, with normal weather conditions dominating throughout the summer season.

An important point to underscore here is that 'normal' weather conditions in a summer season imply regular rainfall, not drought or El Niño. Therefore, the normalising weather prospects from February should not be a significant worry.



Uncertainty

The dominance of La Niña weather should ordinarily present above-normal rainfall in South Africa and the entire southern Africa region.

Admittedly, the South African Weather Service (SAWS) has been more cautious than its peers to make a bold call on where we are regarding the weather prospects.

On 5 October, in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, the SAWS stated: "The ENSO is still in a neutral state and is predicted to weaken further. Current predictions indicate the development of a La Niña state during the start of the summer season; however, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions. It is advised to monitor the ENSO system during the start of the summer season, as it may change the rainfall outlook for the summer rainfall regions if and when the La Niña materialises".

As I write this on the morning of 28 October, the weather prospects for the next two weeks look favourable across South Africa. There are expectations of rainfall. If it materialises, as I hope, this may be the start of the rainy summer season.



Increased hunger

Improved rainfall prospects would be ideal for agricultural recovery across South Africa and the broader southern Africa region.

We are emerging from a challenging 2023-24 agricultural season characterised by an El Niño-induced mid-summer drought. The drought led to significant crop losses across the southern African region. For example, South Africa's 2023/24 summer grain and oilseeds production is down 23% year-on-year to 15.45 million tonnes.

Zimbabwe's 2023-24 maize crop is down by 60% year-on-year, and Zambia's maize harvest is down by 50%. Significant crop losses exist in Lesotho, Malawi, Botswana and other southern African countries.

These significant crop losses have increased hunger across the Southern African region.

In part, South Africa's crop losses are slightly moderate compared with the region because of the relatively higher fertiliser usage, crop protection and better seed cultivars. Still, the essential point is that the improved weather conditions and the possible La Niña would be a recovery period in agricultural production. This would also bode well for food security in the region, given that the recent drought has left so many hungry households.

Going forward, we will have to continuously monitor the weather conditions and farmers' decisions about the size of the planting area. I remain optimistic that we are in for a recovery.



*Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University's Department of Agricultural Economics.