Stophorlosie tik vir hervormings
Verlede week het gesante van die Internasionale Monetêre Fonds (IMF) Namibië opnuut besoek.
Die gesang wat uit ‘n nuusvrystelling opgeklink het, is dieselfde raad wat al verskeie jare aan die regering oorgedra word.
Die dringendheid van belangrike hervormings is weer benadruk. Op die agenda was onder meer die land se skuldlas, ekonomiese doeltreffendheid, hervorming by staatsondernemings (SOE’s), die koste van basiese dienste soos elektrisiteit, die grootte van die staatsdiens, die produktiwiteit van die openbare sektor en vaardigheidstekorte.
Intussen het die Fraser-instituut gesê Namibië se beter vertoning in punte vir beleggingsaantreklikheid en beleidspersepsies in die mynbousektor is waarskynlik skeefgetrek weens swak deelname aan die gerekende navorsing. Onsekerheid heers steeds oor verskeie beleidsake, waarvan bemagtiging net een is.
Met die hervorming van SOE’s is al ‘n ent gevorder, maar hope werk wag nog.
Die inperking van die staat se salarisrekening is ook lankal as onvermydelik uitgewys. Byna 50% van staatsuitgawes is vir personeel en die uitgawe verteenwoordig volgens IMF-syfers 15,9% van die bruto binnelandse produk – van die hoogste in die wêreld.
Dieselfde probleem geld in Suid-Afrika en ander lande in die streek, waar bevrydingsregerings belangrike werkverskaffers geword het in ekonomieë gekenmerk deur groot ongelykhede.
Tans vries die regering poste en gesprekke oor die aftree-ouderdom het gou op ys beland toe dié gesprek te warm geword het.
Uitstel met sleutelvraagstukke gaan later net groter kopsere veroorsaak.
So sê ander
3 Maart 2020
Fresh round of stimulus may not be a cure for coronavirus
It is apt that Sweden, a pioneer in the West when it came to the use of negative interest rates to ward off deflation, is debating the effectiveness of the strategy.
That debate is unlikely to be settled any time soon. Instead, it has sparked a whole new one as the world is gripped by the coronavirus outbreak in China, which has spread rapidly to other parts of the world, threatening an unprecedented halt to global economic activity.
When central banks unleashed an unprecedented amount of stimulus to deal with the global financial crisis that started a decade ago, the question was always whether they had gone too far and would therefore find themselves ridiculously short of ammunition when the next one came. That day has arrived.
The challenge for central banks is that if they are facing what is essentially a supply-side risk, what use is interest rates?
For SA, this latest global crisis couldn’t have come at a worse time. Last week’s budget laid bare the fiscal crisis the country finds itself in after a decade of mismanagement and lacklustre growth.
With our rates nowhere near zero, we might at face value look as if we’ll be among the few with a room for a sizeable monetary stimulus injection. But it’s most likely that the prudent step would be to stay put, lest we risk a run on our assets.
• BUSINESS DAY
Die gesang wat uit ‘n nuusvrystelling opgeklink het, is dieselfde raad wat al verskeie jare aan die regering oorgedra word.
Die dringendheid van belangrike hervormings is weer benadruk. Op die agenda was onder meer die land se skuldlas, ekonomiese doeltreffendheid, hervorming by staatsondernemings (SOE’s), die koste van basiese dienste soos elektrisiteit, die grootte van die staatsdiens, die produktiwiteit van die openbare sektor en vaardigheidstekorte.
Intussen het die Fraser-instituut gesê Namibië se beter vertoning in punte vir beleggingsaantreklikheid en beleidspersepsies in die mynbousektor is waarskynlik skeefgetrek weens swak deelname aan die gerekende navorsing. Onsekerheid heers steeds oor verskeie beleidsake, waarvan bemagtiging net een is.
Met die hervorming van SOE’s is al ‘n ent gevorder, maar hope werk wag nog.
Die inperking van die staat se salarisrekening is ook lankal as onvermydelik uitgewys. Byna 50% van staatsuitgawes is vir personeel en die uitgawe verteenwoordig volgens IMF-syfers 15,9% van die bruto binnelandse produk – van die hoogste in die wêreld.
Dieselfde probleem geld in Suid-Afrika en ander lande in die streek, waar bevrydingsregerings belangrike werkverskaffers geword het in ekonomieë gekenmerk deur groot ongelykhede.
Tans vries die regering poste en gesprekke oor die aftree-ouderdom het gou op ys beland toe dié gesprek te warm geword het.
Uitstel met sleutelvraagstukke gaan later net groter kopsere veroorsaak.
So sê ander
3 Maart 2020
Fresh round of stimulus may not be a cure for coronavirus
It is apt that Sweden, a pioneer in the West when it came to the use of negative interest rates to ward off deflation, is debating the effectiveness of the strategy.
That debate is unlikely to be settled any time soon. Instead, it has sparked a whole new one as the world is gripped by the coronavirus outbreak in China, which has spread rapidly to other parts of the world, threatening an unprecedented halt to global economic activity.
When central banks unleashed an unprecedented amount of stimulus to deal with the global financial crisis that started a decade ago, the question was always whether they had gone too far and would therefore find themselves ridiculously short of ammunition when the next one came. That day has arrived.
The challenge for central banks is that if they are facing what is essentially a supply-side risk, what use is interest rates?
For SA, this latest global crisis couldn’t have come at a worse time. Last week’s budget laid bare the fiscal crisis the country finds itself in after a decade of mismanagement and lacklustre growth.
With our rates nowhere near zero, we might at face value look as if we’ll be among the few with a room for a sizeable monetary stimulus injection. But it’s most likely that the prudent step would be to stay put, lest we risk a run on our assets.
• BUSINESS DAY
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