Global food price increase ends a three-month decline
Wheat exports stabilised in April
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) stated that its food price index averaged 119.1 points in April, up 0.3% from its revised March level, while it was down 9.6% from its level a year ago.
The benchmark for world food commodity prices edged higher in April, as higher prices of meat and modest upticks for vegetable oils and cereals outweighed decreases in sugar and dairy product prices.
This is according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), which said that its food price index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally traded food commodities, averaged 119.1 points in April, up 0.3% from its revised March level, while it was down 9.6% from its level a year ago.
This increase ended a three-month declining trajectory.
The FAO explained that global wheat exports stabilised in April as strong competition among major exporters offset concerns about unfavourable crop conditions in parts of the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States of America.
Meanwhile, maize export prices increased, influenced by robust import demands amidst mounting logistical disruptions as a result of infrastructure damages in Ukraine and concerns about production in Brazil ahead of the main harvest.
Furthermore, the FAO meat price index increased by 1.6% in April from the previous month as international poultry, bovine and ovine meat prices all increased.
“By contrast, world pig meat prices fell marginally, reflecting a slack in internal demand in Western Europe and persistently lacklustre demand from leading importers, especially China.”
Cereal supply, demand
The FAO also released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, slightly raising its forecast for world total cereal production in 2023–24 to 2 846 million tonnes, a 1.2% increase from 2022–2023.
The forecast for world cereal utilisation in 2023/24 was increased to 2 829 million tonnes, mostly reflecting higher than previously anticipated feed use of maize and barley. Global maize utilisation is now expected to rise by 1.6% over the year, that of wheat to expand by 1.9%, while total rice utilisation will likely dip mildly.
World cereal stocks are forecast to end the 2024 season at 890 million tonnes, a 2.1% increase from the outset of the year, pointing to a worldwide cereal stocks-to-use ratio of 30.9%.
FAO also adjusted its forecast for global wheat production in 2024, now standing at 791 million tonnes, less than previously expected but still marking an increase of 0.5 percent from 2023.
For coarse grain crops, the main harvest period begins soon in southern hemisphere countries, where recent adverse weather conditions have curbed yield prospects in leading producer countries, notably Brazil and South Africa.
Meanwhile, available stock in government silos in Namibia is running low, at only 16% of the total holding capacity.
Namibia’s situation
The Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation report issued by the agriculture ministry provided the latest statistics on the national food stock reserve stock levels in the country as recorded until 31 March this year.
The records showed that the five national food reserves in Namibia, with a collective storage of 22 900 tonnes of grain, which include maize and pearl millet, held a stock of 3 758 tonnes.
The report indicated that from May 2023 to February 2024, a total of 236 300 tonnes of coarse grains (wheat, maize, and pearl millet) were imported into the country, which included 116 900 tonnes of wheat, 118 900 tonnes of white maize and 0.594 tonnes of pearl millet.
Therefore, by the end of February, the imports had covered the deficit of wheat and maize, resulting in a surplus of 66 800 tonnes and 48 400 tonnes, respectively.
However, Namibia was still in a deficit of 58 000 tonnes of pearl millet, which was expected to be covered through additional commercial imports.
This is according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), which said that its food price index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a set of globally traded food commodities, averaged 119.1 points in April, up 0.3% from its revised March level, while it was down 9.6% from its level a year ago.
This increase ended a three-month declining trajectory.
The FAO explained that global wheat exports stabilised in April as strong competition among major exporters offset concerns about unfavourable crop conditions in parts of the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States of America.
Meanwhile, maize export prices increased, influenced by robust import demands amidst mounting logistical disruptions as a result of infrastructure damages in Ukraine and concerns about production in Brazil ahead of the main harvest.
Furthermore, the FAO meat price index increased by 1.6% in April from the previous month as international poultry, bovine and ovine meat prices all increased.
“By contrast, world pig meat prices fell marginally, reflecting a slack in internal demand in Western Europe and persistently lacklustre demand from leading importers, especially China.”
Cereal supply, demand
The FAO also released a new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, slightly raising its forecast for world total cereal production in 2023–24 to 2 846 million tonnes, a 1.2% increase from 2022–2023.
The forecast for world cereal utilisation in 2023/24 was increased to 2 829 million tonnes, mostly reflecting higher than previously anticipated feed use of maize and barley. Global maize utilisation is now expected to rise by 1.6% over the year, that of wheat to expand by 1.9%, while total rice utilisation will likely dip mildly.
World cereal stocks are forecast to end the 2024 season at 890 million tonnes, a 2.1% increase from the outset of the year, pointing to a worldwide cereal stocks-to-use ratio of 30.9%.
FAO also adjusted its forecast for global wheat production in 2024, now standing at 791 million tonnes, less than previously expected but still marking an increase of 0.5 percent from 2023.
For coarse grain crops, the main harvest period begins soon in southern hemisphere countries, where recent adverse weather conditions have curbed yield prospects in leading producer countries, notably Brazil and South Africa.
Meanwhile, available stock in government silos in Namibia is running low, at only 16% of the total holding capacity.
Namibia’s situation
The Crop Prospects, Food Security and Drought Situation report issued by the agriculture ministry provided the latest statistics on the national food stock reserve stock levels in the country as recorded until 31 March this year.
The records showed that the five national food reserves in Namibia, with a collective storage of 22 900 tonnes of grain, which include maize and pearl millet, held a stock of 3 758 tonnes.
The report indicated that from May 2023 to February 2024, a total of 236 300 tonnes of coarse grains (wheat, maize, and pearl millet) were imported into the country, which included 116 900 tonnes of wheat, 118 900 tonnes of white maize and 0.594 tonnes of pearl millet.
Therefore, by the end of February, the imports had covered the deficit of wheat and maize, resulting in a surplus of 66 800 tonnes and 48 400 tonnes, respectively.
However, Namibia was still in a deficit of 58 000 tonnes of pearl millet, which was expected to be covered through additional commercial imports.
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