Is a bad moon rising for Red Bull?

Reading a win that doesn't belong to the constructor that has won 85% of the races since the beginning of 2022 as a sign of trouble, may be similar to taking FP1 results as an indicator of race pace, but when pitting the RB20 against the upgraded SF24 at Albert Park, it appears that Ferrari are well and truly aiming to stick it to the big boys in the blue car for the rest of the season.

Whether they will be successful in this endeavour remains to be seen.

While the past weekend saw Max Verstappen's race ending too early for anyone to create any solid comparisons from whence to come to any properly informed conclusions, Red Bull's awe-inspiring leads have shrunk.

While Ferrari and McLaren brought their first upgrades of the season to the Australian Grand Prix, with more improvements in the pipeline for Suzuka and other races further along in the calendar, Red Bull may find themselves scrambling to regain their mile-long lead as the pack draws closer to them.

It may also be important to note that before Red Bull had to retire their car due to Verstappen's overheating brakes in Australia, Sergio Pérez lost roughly half an hour of testing time in Bahrain due to overheating brakes.

While Red Bull have explained that a hydraulic line was seemingly at fault for the Australia incident, there is room for speculation regarding Pérez's problem in Bahrain.

Right from Bahrain, Ferrari shaved their 48.052 second deficit behind a race-leading Red Bull from 2023 down to 25.110 seconds this year. In Saudi Arabia, the deficit to the race leader shrunk from 35.876 seconds in 2023 to 18.639 in 2024.

Red Bull have also indicated upgrades to come with many media outlets noting the similarities of the Red Bull upgrades to concepts abandoned by Mercedes in past.

While Red Bull dominance would be even more glorious if it is achieved using concepts Mercedes never got the hang of, there may be a valid reason why Mercedes abandoned these plans in the first place. Is the genius of Adrian Newey of such a nature that it can mould one of Mercedes's biggest failures into one of Red Bull's greatest developments?

Naysayers who have set the date for Red Bull's downfall in their calendar may be failing to take into account that Albert Park was not expected to be a standout race for the defending constructor's champions given that they are generally found on their backfoot at street circuits.

Ferrari and McLaren may have been competitive in the sessions leading up to Verstappen's retirement at Albert Park, but Red Bull is known to harbour better race pace and fifth-lap retirement is by no measure a proper race.

Nonetheless, following a Ferrari one-two, all eyes will be on Red Bull to do their talking on track and return to their former glory. Failure to do so may get tongues wagging.

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